Judging the number of training places needed
To judge the number of teacher training places needed each year, the Teacher Training Agency (TTA, now the TDA) uses the Government’s teacher supply model.

The number of children in maintained schools depends on three main trends:
  • The birth rate

  • The number of pupils staying at school beyond compulsory school age

  • The number of pupils attending receiving their education outside the state sector.
For example:
Between 1974 and 1985, in England, there was a 25% fall in the number of pupils in maintained nursery and primary schools. This was explained by a 35% fall in the number of births between 1964 and 1977. The number of secondary school pupils fell by 26% between 1979 and 1991. After increasing in the 1990s, the number of nursery and primary school pupils peaked in 1998 and the subsequent fall is predicted to continue. By 2008, it is expected to have returned to its 1992 level. The number of secondary school pupils peaked in 2004 and is predicted to continue to decline.

Predicting such trends is important if the correct number of teachers is to be in post to meet the demands of state schools. Mid-year population estimates from the Government Actuary’s Department are used to try to predict the number of teachers that will be required each year, and from that, the number of new entrants that need to start training each year. The model also takes account of the number of serving teachers leaving teaching and the number of qualified teachers returning to the profession each year.

However, training sufficient teachers to meet demand is more complex tha simply meeting a single target number each year, especially in secondary education where it has always been more difficult to recruit and retain teachers in certain ‘shortage’ subjects, including Mathematics, Modern Foreign Languages (MFL), Design and Technology (D&T), Science and English. The TTA (now the TDA), therefore, breaks down the total target number for training secondary teachers each year, into targets for each subject.

In 2005, the TTA was succeeded by the Training and Development Agency for Schools (TDA).

Useful web links

Click here to read more about strategies for attracting, recruiting and retaining sufficient high quality teachers to meet national demand.

Click here for easy access to a range of statistical evidence across the whole of the English education system, from the early years to adult learning.

To read current information about the Training and Development Agency for Schools (TDA), the successor to the TTA, click here.
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